Betting on Yourself 

Prior to this season, New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge turned down an offer to stay with the Bombers for 7 years, for a total of over $213 million. That, my friends, is what we call real money. Even one of those 30 million dollar campaigns would’ve had me rolling in Senkos for the rest of my days on earth. 

Judge could have crapped the bed this year. He could’ve suffered a career-ending injury. Instead, he put up MVP numbers, leading the major leagues in runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, total bases and – most notably for many onlookers, since chick digs the long ball – home runs. He hit 62 dingers, beating the Yankees mark set by Roger Maris over 60 years earlier. 

All rise, indeed. 

Of course, even had Judge’s career ended unexpectedly this season, it’s not like he would have been hurting. He was set to make 19 million in 2022. If he’d had a dog crap season this year, someone still would have signed him for eight or nine figures based on past production alone. The issue was not whether he’d be able to afford his own plane, but rather what type of plane he’d own. 

Registration for the Bassmaster Opens has come and gone. I have no inside scoop, but I’m guessing we’ll definitely have over a hundred anglers fishing all nine, and I won’t be surprised if there are over 150 of them. Many of those will be past tour-level pros, or anglers who otherwise would’ve had a seat at the table at what was for a long time called the FLW Tour. They could’ve stayed there, under some changed circumstances, but nevertheless, in a comfort zone, knowing what they’re getting. Instead, they’re betting on the small odds that they’ll be one of the small minority who advance to the Elites in 2024. Simple path and logic tell us that many very competent, very experienced anglers will not progress out of the Opens this year – do not pass Go, do not collect $200. These are anglers who could likely be reasonably competitive at the uppermost level, but due to one bad event, one bad day, or one bad decision their year will go up in flames. It’s not like anyone’s pretending that the Opens themselves are a springboard to riches – most of the hundred-plus who sign up for all nine will lose a fair amount on the transaction. My best guess is that some of the ones who make it to the Elites will lose too – at least in the short run. What they’re promised, though, is an opportunity, and for some of them it will prove to be a good bet – not Judge-level good, but good in the sense that it pushes their career forward. 

There are others, however, particularly those who have made a good-but-not-great living on the FLW side, who are going to have to decide how many years they can chase these poor mathematical odds. Ours is a sport that caters to gamblers – that’s why it seems that so many of the pros have hobbies like poker and day trading – but you only get so many chances to really take a big risk. I’ll be curious to see who emerges out of the Opens with a new lease on life, and who sees it speed up their return to the office. Look, it’s a competitive endeavor – there are no participation trophies, nor should they be – but the two-tour reality is that the AAA path is getting harder, as it should, not easier.